According to today's New York Times, two of China's southern provinces are suffering from a "growing shortage of factory workers": Help Wanted: China Finds Itself With a Labor Shortage (registration required). Jim Yardley and David Barboza write that:
No one thinks China is running out of workers. But young migrant workers coveted by factories are gaining bargaining power and many are choosing to leave the low pay and often miserable conditions in Guangdong. In a nondemocratic China, it is the equivalent of "voting with their feet."
March is one of the most important hiring months for China's factories, yet some analysts believe that the current shortfalls are the beginning of a long-term trend that is already bringing wage pressures and could eventually erode China's position as the world's dominant low-cost producer.
"It's not the end of the great China manufacturing story," said Jonathan Anderson, the chief Asia-Pacific economist for UBS. "But you're no longer going to be talking about China having labor so radically cheap that it will capture all the investment flows. This is an opening for Vietnam, it's an opening for India and Cambodia."
The shift, which experts say will happen gradually, began last year and is a result of two decades of strict family planning, which has made China one of the most rapidly aging countries in the world.
"The number of people in the labor force is going to be going down for the next 15 years," said Dali Yang, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago. "This is a shift in demographics that is really good, not just for salaries but for work conditions."
China remains a country where migrant workers are routinely exploited. But after a decade of stagnant wages, these workers are showing more willingness to demand their rights. Last year, factory workers rioted and held strikes in Guangdong. Other workers just left.
They can do that because economic growth in other regions has created increasing competition for workers. Many are leaving Guangdong for the rival Yangtze River Delta region near Shanghai, where many factories offer higher salaries. Others are starting to find work in larger cities in interior provinces. Some are simply returning to the farm.
"If we go to work in Guangdong, we work hard all year round but we can't save much money," said Tang Xiaoliang, a migrant worker who toiled in Guangdong factories but has returned to his village near Hunan Top. "The pay is too low. Whoever pays higher, I will go there."
This is a great example of market forces at work - though for anyone familiar with the post-war economic development of countries like Japan or Korea, it is hardly surprising. Growing inter-regional competition for factory workers were inevitable.
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