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Sunday, August 28, 2005

More analysis on China's economy

Here are several recent newspaper articles and blog posts on China that are worth a look:

* Will Hutton writes in Saturday's Guardian on how China's poorest will suffer if the "self-defeating trade war" on textile imports is allowed to continue.

* Robert Schiller asks in the Daily Times of 25 August: Is China’s economy overheating?

* The Economist features a story on Europe’s textile war with China - and itself.

* In Industry on a slow boat to China, David Smith writes in The Sunday Times that "under the pressure of competition from China" British manufacturing "..is withering, and rather faster than in the countries of most of our competitors".

* Simon World has a post on Chinese and Indian economic models, arguing that "the relative success or failure of these two great Asian nations may very well determine the course of the 21st century".

* The Indian Economy blog argues in How does China do it? Hint: Not free-market economics that the difference between India and China is "mainly ..that ..China invests 40% of its GDP compared to 25% in India."

* Ben Muse posts on Chinese oil insecurity.

* Dr John Rutledge discusses the issues facing the 10th National People's Congress, meeting in Beijing last week, in his post China Competing for Capital.

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Comments

What are the chances the US is going broke?

The national debt is about $8 trillion now with absolutely no end in sight to continuing deficit spending. We'll likely pour another half trillion or more into Iraq before we get out of there. It has been estimated the cost of recovery from Katrina will cost the government $100 billion. How long can this charade go on?

The rise in the price of oil seems ominously portentous to me. How can it not prove damaging to our economy in the very near future? What would be the repercussions of a collapse in the value of the dollar? Another Great Depression seems the likely result, massive layoffs, companies going out of business, home foreclosures, many Americans unable to pay their credit card bills any longer. Perhaps what has happened to New Orleans is a microcosm of what will occur across America in macrocosm.

Why aren't our politicians and leading economists raising the red flag of a dire warning? I suspect it's because of what has become standard operating procedure -- Don't do anything until after a crisis has already occurred. The philosophy of "hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil" doesn't prevent evil from happening -- duh.

The increased cost of oil and natural gas will have a ripple effect strectching across all sectors of the economy. Maybe the movers and shakers will come to realize the dollar is not so valuable after all. The economic foundation of our country may soon be shaken as if by an earthquake and the fallout would surely not be a pretty sight.

I'm a translator and researcher serving at a consulting firm in China. I have launched a blog at http://china-dynamics.blogspot.com/ that posts my own selection of update about developments in China's economy. I'm trying to update it it every 24 hours. Please feel free to discuss those topics in my selections. If you like to know more about those subjects, please do not hesitate to let me know.


Fascinating article on the

economics of chinese birth planning , which asks "how necessary was the one child policy

in fostering economic development?". In-depth analysis with useful facts and statistics

The trade deficit problem with China is indeed a problem. But the bottom line is that American corporations have been pressured to seek cheaper resources from overseas. In fact, there really is very little that politicians or economists can do to prevent companies from going oversea unless, cost wise, the manufacturing technology in our country could efficiently drive down the cost of manufacturing even below what Chinese could do.

The U.S. is already the most efficient manufacturer in the world. Only 13 million U.S. workers are needed to produce over $5 trillion of manufacturing output a year (see table 2 in link below). Offshoring obsolete jobs is inevitable. U.S. corporations are pressured to maintain profit growth. China's low cost manufacturing (mostly through low wages and unaccounted social costs) is unsustainable.

http://www.census.gov/mcd/exports/arp05.pdf

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