Barro, Romer, or Fama & French for Nobel prize?

In anticipation of the announcement of the 2005 Nobel Prize winners this October, Michael Statsny reports on the 2005 Thomson Scientific Laureates - researchers likely to contend for Nobel honors, based on their influence. Thomson Scientific identify "high-impact researchers" based on the total citations to their works". Here are their four picks for the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences award:

Robert J. Barro, Professor of Economics, Harvard University and Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution.
For his pioneering contributions in empirical macroeconomics, ranging over many fields, but especially for work in public debt in the 1970s.

Paul Michael Romer, Stanford University Graduate School of Business, and Hoover Institution.
For his development of ‘new growth theory,’ which addresses a fundamental question in economics: what sustains economic growth in a world characterized by diminishing returns and scarcity.

Eugene F. Fama, Professor of Finance, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago and Kenneth R. French, Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College.
For their seminal contributions to understanding the relationship of stock returns and business fluctuations.

All fine economists, well deserving of recognition. But if the SSRN author rank is any guide, I'd be putting my money on Fama and French.

UPDATE: The Guardian has published a shortlist of five economists "who are good contenders for this year's prize": Robert Barro, Jagdish Bhagwati, Eugene Fama, Paul Krugman and Paul Romer. They favour Barro "on the grounds that international economics and growth economics might be overdue a prize", but I still favour Fama. (Hat tip: Tyler Cowen). Note also that unfortunately the Nobelpreisbörse (Nobel Prize Market) won't open its doors this year.