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Thursday, June 29, 2006

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Arthur Eckart

The BIS stated: "Global trade imbalances have also emerged as a result of globalisation, the ultra-loose monetary policy in the US." I find it interesting that international organizations, e.g. the BIS, IMF, and World Bank, have blamed the U.S. for other countries poor economic policies. The aggressiveness of export-led growth by many U.S. trading partners is the root of the global economic imbalance. These export countries buy U.S. Treasury Bonds to keep their currencies weak to continue exporting. Consequently, U.S. market interest rates remain low. Currently, the U.S. 10-year T-Bond yield is below the Fed Funds Rate. Moreover, The U.S. Trade Balance in 2006 will be negative $800 billion. So, how can these organizations fault the U.S. Federal Reserve? U.S. fiscal policy could be blamed. The Bush Admininstration cut taxes in 2001 to 2003 and continues to maintain those tax cuts. Perhaps, the Bush Administration should have raised taxes after the 2001 recession, and subsequent period of slow growth, perhaps after the 2004 election. However, that would have reduced the benefits to U.S. consumers and some of the benefits to U.S. producers. The correcting mechanism is for export-led economies to accept higher unemployment and lower output. Unfortunately, that correction is increasingly shaping up to take place unwillingly, suddenly, and sharply.

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