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Thursday, July 20, 2006

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A. PERLA

"If the testimony was indeed consistent with last FOMC statement, why did markets surge yesterday? My interpretation of events is that market participants, like myself, were mentally geared for a more hawkish Ben, and instead the Gentle Ben of the last FOMC statement sauntered up to the stage."

Gotcha, didn't he?

Equity markets have a VERY positive influence on the "feel good" factor (FDF). The FDF prompts spending, since when portfolio values rise people think less wearily about a sunshine vacation in St. Tropez.

As a resident of France, therefore, I want to commend Ben for his showmanship. (We're having not such a good tourist year, here.) But, it was that, wasn't it - just showmanship?

He borrowed a leaf from Greenspan's book, which he probably has not put down since he first arrived at the Fed. It contains a simple lesson - pay attention to the FDF!

The US used to go through "boom and bust" cycles. Now it is undergoing a "boom and slow-leak" cycle. Growth is not firmly re-established; whilst profits are good (meaning corporate investment is there to support demand). All it needs is for consumer spending to find another venue other than real estate within which to sustain itself.

christy

respected sir,

I completely read ur articles sir. i am M.COM. student of holy cross college in trichy, state of tamilnadu . sir i request to want one information that is role or function of managerial economist in ur concern. please did not ommit my request sir.
thank u sir,

A. PERLA

"sir i request to want one information that is role or function of managerial economist in ur concern."

If you mean a corporate economist, then it depends very much on the company.

Macroeconomic forecasts are abundant. But specific studies are typically of interest in a corporate context.

Let me give you an example. I began working with a large computer company right out of university. They asked me to forecast the pricing of semiconductor quality silicon to determine input manufacturing costs, as this level of quality was becoming increasingly rare due to heavy demand.

This is typical of the sort of analysis corporate economists are called to do. (IMHO) They are related tightly to corporate business objectives.

Hope this helps.

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