Polls and pounds

Can politics effect financial markets? More specifically, is there a relationship between government popularity and exchange rate movements? William Bernhard from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and David Leblang at the University of Colorado. looked at the pound since 1987 and found that there is. Polls and Pounds: Public Opinion and Exchange Rate Behavior in Britain was published in the first issue of the new online Quarterly Journal of Political Science. The authors argue that the effect works both ways:

(1) unexpected drops in the government's public support lead to currency depreciations and increased exchange rate volatility, and (2) unanticipated depreciations hurt the government's public support. It estimates separate models of the exchange rate and government voting intention iteratively and recursively. At each iteration, measures of exchange rate and public opinion shocks are generated. These generated variables are employed in the next iteration of estimates, including measures of political shocks in the model of exchange rate behavior and measures of exchange rate movements in the model of voting intention. This enables, therefore, the measurement of both the political costs of currency depreciation and the exchange rate consequences of political competition.

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