What if the City caught flu?

What would the impact of an avian flu epidemic on financial markets? Jill Treanor reports in today's Guardian that the City is to spend six weeks answering bird flu alarm:

A dead swan was enough to raise fears of bird flu ripping through Britain. The prospect of a sick bird contaminating humans is being taken so seriously that for six weeks this year the City will practise how it would cope with such a disaster.

The length of the exercise will be unprecedented for the City, which is more accustomed to preparing for terrorist attacks or an energy crisis.

Every Friday for six weeks starting on October 13, more than 60 organisations in the City will be asked to react to a new scenario about a pretend bird flu pandemic. The exercise will end on November 24, by which time the authorities hope to know how the City would cope with reduced staffing levels and the knock-on effect this might have on essential services such as transport, power and telecoms.

The event is being run by the tripartite authorities - the Bank of England, Financial Services Authority and the Treasury - which simulate a disaster every year. Last year was billed as the world's biggest ever business endurance exercise as it included more than 80 firms. Whereas it lasted a day, this year's event is scheduled to run for six weeks.

"The overall objective for the authorities is to improve their own and the sector's preparedness by providing an opportunity to review, test and update plans for managing a pandemic threat," the three authorities said.

The FSA has already asked insurance companies about their ability to withstand a deluge of claims on life insurance policies in the event of a bird flu pandemic. Last year the City regulator also asked financial firms to prepare plans to continue operating in the event of their staff being struck by the flu after warnings that 10% of personnel could be off work for three months.

The effectiveness of those plans is likely to be tested by this year's exercise in disaster planning. Though the authorities will not give public updates on the exercise while it is under way, it plans to publish a report once it has finished.

Comments

[A. PERLA]

"The FSA has already asked insurance companies about their ability to withstand a deluge of claims on life insurance policies in the event of a bird flu pandemic. "

The Spanish bird flu pandemic in 1918 supposedly killed 50 million people. Still, that is no reason upon which to base a similarly dire forecast for the future. We have anti-dote capacities today that they did not have then.

I have faith that any bird-flu contagion will be identified and stopped. This years "normal" flu has two variations for which vaccination will be necessary. First time anyone has ever seen this (I think).

Government administrators are not paid to "have faith", or so they shouldn't be. Their efforts to plan "what if" are therefor worthwhile. But also, think of it, why should financial systems be "mission critically dependent" upon humans in a given place (like the City). They should be able to be run just about anywhere, as 911 indicated to us on Wall Street.

This would require system redundancy in very different geographical spots. Replicate the systems that are employed in the City to be run from ... say, Bermuda or some Scottish glen. Replicate the systems that run Wall Street finance in a mountain in Colorado.

Why not?

[Lisa P]

Typically, influenza is transmitted from infected mammals through the air by coughs or sneezes, creating aerosols containing the virus, and from infected birds through their droppings. Infections also occur through contact with these body fluids or with contaminated surfaces. Flu viruses can remain infectious for about one week at human body temperature, over 30 days at 0 °C (32 °F), and for much longer periods at very low temperatures. Disinfectants and detergents can inactivate most influenza strains easily.

Now that fall is here, let me remind that fall brings one of the most dangerous things you ever have heard of: flu season. The influenza virus is one of the most dangerous diseases that have ever plagued this earth, and the death toll from it has, according to most estimates, already eclipsed the Bubonic Plague. The death toll from the post World War 1 epidemic was over the dozens of millions. Yearly, the United States records almost a quarter of a million hospitalized from it, and over 36,000 deaths as a result of the influenza virus. The easiest way to prevent infection is to wash your hands. Doctors, experts and the CDC recommend getting an annual flu shot. Prevention and treatment can be expensive, especially for larger families. A vaccination for mom, dad, and three or more children at $20 - $30 per shot will get expensive, fast. A hospital visit could be even more expensive. If you don’t think you can cover these sorts of things, a payday cash loan could be the best medicine. Remember to wash your hands, get yourself and your children vaccinated, and stay healthy.

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