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Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Comments

Bill Lindeman

Interesting, I would like to read more.

Arthur Eckart

The regressions are too generalized to make firm conclusions. For example, a 1% increase in China's real GDP leads to a 1.5% increase in imports (with distance the wrong sign and insignificant) could mean increasingly greater consumer surplus or decreasing returns to scale. Also, if China's export growth is faster than Asian or world export growth, then there would be displacement. Moreover, I suspect, there's a positive correlation between income and exports. Consequently, China would more likely displace exports of higher income countries. So, it's unclear if faster or slower growth will benefit China.

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Moreover, I suspect, there's a positive correlation between income and exports. Consequently, China would more likely displace exports of higher income countries. So, it's unclear if faster or slower growth will benefit China.d

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