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Friday, January 25, 2008

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ZKu

I though the approach they criticize goes under the heading of "Barro's everything but the kitchen sink" regressions. The Growth diagnostics is label I would associate with Dani Rodrik's work, that is much more interesting than [largely discredited] cross-country regressions.

http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2007/11/doing-growth-di.html

Glenn Athey

Its just the same as all the stuff I've looked into about the accuracy of economic forecasting. In models such as Cambridge Econometrics/ IER At least 50% of the forecasting error is usually due to errors in source data.

The predictive strength of modelling anything is only as good as the source data used to build the model.

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"I though the approach they criticize goes under the heading of "Barro's everything but the kitchen sink" regressions."

yes i think too.


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Its just the same as all the stuff I've looked into about the accuracy of economic forecasting. In models such as Cambridge Econometrics/ IER At least 50% of the forecasting error is usually due to errors in source data.

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As many potential explanatory variables have been suggested, these agnostic empirical approaches inevitably need to start out with a long list of variables. We show that, as a result, the growth determinants emerging from these approaches turn out to be sensitive to seemingly minor variations in international income estimates across datasets. This is because strong conclusions are drawn from small differences in the R2 of different growth regressions. Small changes in the relative fit of different models—due to Penn World Table income data revisions or methodological differences between the PWT and the World Bank income data for example—can therefore lead to substantial changes regarding growth determinants.

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