Should we kill the king?

Are autocratic leaders an impediment to democratisation? An intriguing question, which some economists have recently sought to answer.

A year ago a JPE article by Harvard's Ben Olken on corruption in Indonesia attracted attention for its innovative appproach. The American magazine has a profile of him by Michael Moynihan, Graft Paper, discussing this and other research, including a paper co-written with Northwestern's Ben Jones, Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War (PDF). Moynihan summarises it thus:

Olken and Jones looked at the effects of political assassination, using a strict empirical methodology that takes into account economic conditions at the time of the killing and what Olken calls a “novel data set” of assas­sination attempts, successful and unsuccessful, between 1875 and 2004.

Olken and Jones discovered that a country was “more likely to see democratization follow­ing the assassination of an autocratic leader,” but found no substantial “effect following assassinations—or assassination attempts—on democratic leaders.” They concluded that “on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy.” The researchers also found that assassinations have no effect on the inauguration of wars, a result that “suggests that World War I might have begun regardless of whether or not the attempt on the life of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 had succeeded or failed.”

The whole article is worth a read - as are Olken's other papers.

Comments

[Parag Waknis]

Daron Acemoglu from the MIT has written a book titled, "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy". Might be an interesting read in this regard.

[Araba Oyunları]

The researchers also found that assassinations have no effect on the inauguration of wars, a result that “suggests that World War I might have begun regardless of whether or not the attempt on the life of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 had succeeded or failed.

[San Antonio Business Phone Book]

Oh Pat, you’ve got friends! Don’t give me that. Your blog looks great and has good info. You can be friends with me. Please come visit my site San Antonio Business Phone Book when you got time. Thanks.

[San Diego Directory]

right. lol! Thanks for the information you post. Please come visit my site San Diego Directory when you got time.

[neon tabela]

bilgiler ve paylaşım için saolun...

[Michigan MI Phone Directory]

I can see that you are an expert at your field! I am launching a website soon, and your information will be very useful for me. Thanks for all your help and wishing you all the success in your business. Please come visit my site Michigan MI Phone Directory when you got time.

[Directory Long Beach City]

I can see that you are putting a lot of time and effort into your blog and detailed articles! I am deeply in love with every single piece of information you post here. Will be back often to read more updates! Please come visit my site Directory Long Beach City when you got time.

[matbaa]

The researchers also found that assassinations have no effect on the inauguration of wars, a result that “suggests that World War I might have begun regardless of whether or not the attempt on the life of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 had succeeded or failed.

[haber24]

The researchers also found that assassinations have no effect on the inauguration of wars, a result that “suggests that World War I might have begun regardless of whether or not the attempt on the life of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 had succeeded or failed.

[evden eve nakliyat]

The researchers also found that assassinations have no effect on the inauguration of wars, a result that “suggests that World War I might have begun regardless of whether or not the attempt on the life of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 had succeeded or failed.