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Tuesday, April 05, 2005



I would encourage the authors to study business management which has been practicing this art for a nearly a century. Business schools are easy to find given that they are located at almost every major university. Seriously, I am shocked that researchers at RAND could utter such statements. There are a multitude of tools to address the issue of uncertainty. Many developed at the RAND institute. Scenario planning, Delphi, ect.

I think that the real issue that these scientists are struggling with is how can scientists use these techniques in such a manner as to maintain the appearannce of objectivity, while pushing their values on the rest of us as science versus personal value judgments.

I would also like to note that one concept that has not been adequately appreciated in dealing with uncertainty is opportunity costs. The situation often presented is act or disaster. Not appropraite.

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