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Thursday, September 15, 2005


Edward Hugh

This is an important issue, and the consequences are unknown. I'm not very sure that the imbalance will actually affect people's sexual orientation though. More probably it will, as they say, be a factor for instability. My father always used to blame WW1 on an excess of population. This is undoubtedly far too simplistic, but OTOH all that excess testosterone floating around can hardly be a plus for world peace.

And you need to add this to the other structural population elements which are about to impact on Chinese society, like rapid ageing: the labour force will probably start to decline around 2015 and by 2040 China will be *older* than the US.

Some key macro indicators, like the high saving rate, cannot be understood outside this context.

"Yet the Chinese government has done little to address its demographic destiny."

Well I'm not sure what they are suggesting here. Clearly a country as large as China cannot address its demographic problems by means of immigration (although there is a steady flow of brides from N Korea apparently). Since Germany and Japan have also done little or nothing in this regard it seems a bit unfair to criticise China for being a 'laggard' here.

Obviously 'the owl minerva flys only after dusk', but still the sooner we get everyone focused on the importance of all these impending changes the sooner we may get policies which start to address them.

BTW: India has a less publicised but similar female shortfall.

wang q.

At the least you can hope is those excess men are going to have high suicidal rate and therefore balancing this problem out.

Its like when their parents' weeding out the female fetus, now they're gonna weed themselves out.

Some questions remain as china is the only country that have more female suicide than male suicide because the available supply of chemical pesticides.

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