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Thursday, September 08, 2005


Edward Hugh

The really interesting thing is the way people react to data which are then subsequently revised. ie they are practicing fine-tuning on a pretty rough-and-ready (blurry) version of reality. At the same time those who are glued to their screens watching all the up- and down-ticks probably have some implicit virtual model in their head that they are working from :).

Don't you know that all the good billiard players are notoriously bad at formal geometry?


Having wall street economist make estimates of what an individual economic release will be is a "suckers" game created by the brokerages houses to generate volume.

The brokerage houses make their money on volume and do not really care if the volume is in an up or a down market.

I know many people who are paid to generate such forecast,
but I have never heard of a single one who had enough confidence in their own forecast to go out and start their own firm betting on individual economic releases.

This strongly implies that no one is consistently right
and the original statement that it is a suckers market is accurate.

Roehl Briones

In (what I think is an important) paper, Pierre Monnin shows evidence that such "higher order beliefs", i.e. beliefs about beliefs, are responsible for introducing volatility into the stock market.

pandora jewellery

Interesting perspective on India ... thanks!


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