« The global 'brain drain' | Main | Economic resources: Country market analysis maps »

Wednesday, October 26, 2005

Comments

gary lammert

Econometrics and fractal analysis share the commonality of a
attempting to construct or define a methodology to describe in
a purposeful and predictive way the macroeconomy. For the fractal
analysis small school perhaps ' a breakthrough' has occurred....

The fractal decay puzzle which retrospectively will epitomize
maximum mathematical efficiency in the three fractal primary decay
process must be solved prior to its evolution in order to validate
fractal analysis as a fundamental 'science' of macroeconomics.

At its smallest time units, equity valuation growth to trading
saturation points and decay to selling saturation points makes
intuitive sense. At the longest time units, growth to the consumer
debt saturation point based both on collective limited wages and
overvaluation and overproduction of assets which in turn are based
both on low interest rates and creative easy lending practices is
followed by a contraction and decay process of asset values that
unmasks the surpluses in the system and results in job contraction and
lower wages based on those ongoing surpluses and contracting prices.
This longer perspective likewise makes intuitive sense.

Equity valuation fractals quantify, in the most efficient manner, this
qualitative intuitively reasonable process. The markets are not - they
are not random walks. The markets are defined by dollars available
for investment, current total value of investments and assets, ongoing
wages, outstanding debt obligations, and inflationary pressures of day
to day living fueled by low interest rates, imprudent lending
practices, and inappropriate money creation in relation to traditional
debt to wage ratios. The numbers 1-10 and fractions and multiples
thereof define the ongoing valuations, debt, and money supply that is
the market. That the market 'marches' and otherwise evolves to a beat
of efficient fractal patterns that represents the total integration
of these numbers into repetitive maximum efficient patterns is wholly
reasonable.

The probability that the retrospectively identified recurrent fractals
patterns occur by chance alone approaches zero. The challenge remains
to decipher the non complex puzzle and to delineate the decay process
prior its real time evolution. If it can be done, it will be the first
time that quantification of the valuation decay process has been
accomplished before the event. Ludwig Von Mises and Joe Kennedy by
different methodologies in 1928 and 1929 intuitively sensed in a
qualitative way the lurking decay process and collapse and acted
accordingly.

Just as in 1929 and 1720, consumer saturation and/or asset
overvaluation relative to ongoing wages and debt load will be the
precipitating cause of the mechanistic deterministic non stochastic
fractal decay process. By lowering the fed fund rates to extreme low
levels and not controlling lending practices, the Federal Reserve and
government caused excess borrowing, excess valuation, and excess
production - with expected excess pain in the subsequent natural and
mechanistic devolution process. By its ongoing raising of fed fund
rates the Fed has placed boron rods into the uncontrolled reactor and
decreased the highs of overvaluation with an expected lessening of
pain in the devolution. Hence the Euro- Nikkei markets with
relatively less tightening by their central banks have had higher
recent terminal valuations. Regardless of the degree of
overvaluation, devolution will inevitably occur and will inevitably
occur on time according to the most efficient fractal decay
progression Just as the Federal governmen and the Federal Reserve
with its large check book and rapid lowering of interest rates,
respectively, could not change the couse of the devolution in
1929-1932 and
2000-2003, so will they be powerless to change the course of the
present devolution.

The perfect often stated fractal growth pattern is x/2.5x/2x followed
by an idealized decay of 1.5x. This last 1.5x can be subdivided into
an idealized decay fractal pattern of y/2.5y/2.5y.

TNX, the ten year note, had an exhaustion gap on Wednesday 26 October,
day 38 of a
19/48/38 of 38 perfect growth sequence. What is possibility that this
perfect x/2.5x/2x growth fractal with an exhaustion gap on the last
day of the third growth fractal evolved via this perfect fractal
growth evolution by chance? Had there been a key reversal today, it
would have been a completely perfect pattern in concert with a
possible major reversal point for the Wilshire. 27 October 2005 will
be a most interesting trading in this context.


An intriguing possibility exists that the second fractal for the
equity composite Wilshire has already been completed. A 19/48/ 10 of
45-48 fractal decay pattern is now evident to this myopic fractalist.
In this fractal solution 35-38 more trading days exist to a primary
bottom with nonlinear devalutions of potentially massive proportions
contained within those 35-38 days.

A slope taken from the first day of the second fractal to the last day
of the second contains all of the lowest values for the intermediate
days - except 2-3 days. And even those days touch the underlying
slope line at the bottom most areas of their daily valuations.

By repetitive inductive and retrospective fractal analysis,
macroeconomics appears to be a recurrent cyclical process of natural
growth, saturation , and inevitable natural decay flowing in
recurrent, nearly quantum, maximally efficient fractals of incremental
time proportionalities. Growth and saturation represents the bulk of
the cycle. The terminal devolutions are a very small part of the total
economic life cycles; they are nonlinear; and the declines are
proportional to the antecedent excesses in growth, debt, and
overvaluations at the summit saturation levels.

Gary Lammert http://www.economicfractalist.com/

gary lammert

The holy grail. the construct that will serve ecometrics and provide a utilatarian yardstick for macroeconomics is:
economic fractal analysis; it is real and it is testible and operative:

The fractal decay puzzle which retrospectively will epitomize
maximum mathematical efficiency in the three fractal primary decay process must be solved prior to its evolution in order to validate fractal analysis as a fundamental 'science' of macroeconomics.

At its smallest time units, equity valuation growth to trading
saturation points and decay to selling saturation points makes
intuitive sense. At the longest time units, growth to the consumer debt saturation point based both on collective limited wages and overvaluation and overproduction of assets which in turn are based both on low interest rates and creative easy lending practices is followed by a contraction and decay process of asset values that unmasks the surpluses in the system and results in job contraction and lower wages based on those ongoing surpluses and contracting prices.

This longer perspective likewise makes intuitive sense.

Equity valuation fractals quantify, in the most efficient manner, this qualitative intuitively reasonable process. The markets are not - theyare not random walks. The markets are defined by dollars available for investment, current total value of investments and assets, ongoing wages, outstanding debt obligations, and inflationary pressures of day
to day living fueled by low interest rates, imprudent lending
practices, and inappropriate money creation in relation to traditional debt to wage ratios. The numbers 1-10 and fractions and multiples thereof define the ongoing valuations, debt, and money supply that is the market. That the market 'marches' and otherwise evolves to a beat of efficient fractal patterns that represents the total integration of these numbers into repetitive maximum efficient patterns is wholly reasonable.

The probability that the retrospectively identified recurrent fractals patterns occur by chance alone approaches zero. The challenge remains to decipher the non complex puzzle and to delineate the decay process prior its real time evolution. If it can be done, it will be the first time that quantification of the valuation decay process has been accomplished before the event. Ludwig Von Mises and Joe Kennedy by
different methodologies in 1928 and 1929 intuitively sensed in a qualitative way the lurking decay process and collapse and acted accordingly.

Just as in 1929 and 1720, consumer saturation and/or asset
overvaluation relative to ongoing wages and debt load will be the precipitating cause of the mechanistic deterministic non stochastic fractal decay process. By lowering the fed fund rates to extreme low levels and not controlling lending practices, the Federal Reserve and government caused excess borrowing, excess valuation, and excess production - with expected excess pain in the subsequent natural and mechanistic devolution process. By its ongoing raising of fed fund rates the Fed has placed boron rods into the uncontrolled reactor and
decreased the highs of overvaluation with an expected lessening of pain in the devolution. Hence the Euro- Nikkei markets with relatively less tightening by their central banks have had higher recent terminal valuations. Regardless of the degree of overvaluation, devolution will inevitably occur and will inevitably occur on time according to the most efficient fractal decay progression Just as the Federal governmen and the Federal Reserve with its large check book and rapid lowering of interest rates, respectively, could not change the couse of the devolution in 1929-1932 and 2000-2003, so will they be powerless to change the course of the present devolution.

The perfect often stated fractal growth pattern is x/2.5x/2x followed by an idealized decay of 1.5x. This last 1.5x can be subdivided into an idealized decay fractal pattern of y/2.5y/2.5y.

TNX, the ten year note, had an exhaustion gap on Wednesday 26 October, day 38 of a 19/48/38 of 38 perfect growth sequence. What is possibility that this perfect x/2.5x/2x growth fractal with an exhaustion gap on the last day of the third growth fractal evolved via this perfect fractal growth evolution by chance? Had there been a key reversal today, it would have been a completely perfect pattern in concert with a
possible major reversal point for the Wilshire. 27 October 2005 will be a most interesting trading in this context.


An intriguing possibility exists that the second fractal for the
equity composite Wilshire has already been completed. A 19/48/ 10 of 45-48 fractal decay pattern is now evident to this myopic fractalist. In this fractal solution 35-38 more trading days exist to a primary bottom with nonlinear devalutions of potentially massive proportions contained within those 35-38 days.

A slope taken from the first day of the second fractal to the last day of the second contains all of the lowest values for the intermediate days - except 2-3 days. And even those days touch the underlying slope line at the bottom most areas of their daily valuations.

By repetitive inductive and retrospective fractal analysis,
macroeconomics appears to be a recurrent cyclical process of natural growth, saturation , and inevitable natural decay flowing in recurrent, nearly quantum, maximally efficient fractals of incremental time proportionalities. Growth and saturation represents the bulk of the cycle. The terminal devolutions are a very small part of the total economic life cycles; they are nonlinear; and the declines are proportional to the antecedent excesses in growth, debt, and overvaluations at the summit saturation levels.

Gary Lammert

Dennis Belanger

Gary,

I notice that you run your X, 2.5X, 2X FROM BOTTOM TO BOTTOM. cAN THE SAME THING BE DONE FROM TOP TO TOP?

Laura Lammert

Dad, you are too smart for your own good. ~Lo

The comments to this entry are closed.

Information




  • TEST


  • Subscribe in NewsGator Online

Economist Weblogs

Categories

Disclaimer


  • This is a personal web site, produced in my own time and solely reflecting my personal opinions. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of my employer, past or present, or any other organisation with which I may be affiliated. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.