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Thursday, October 13, 2005


Edward Hugh

Maybe I follow too much football, but I can't help feeling that the putting the former manager's co-worker in to run the team isn't a good long term approach (although Bob Paisley did prove me wrong). Really I suppose it depends on what you expect from the next Fed chairman. If you think that Greenspan is such a hard act to follow that failure is guaranteed, then maybe Kohn's your man (with no disrespect for Don Kohn intended). I mean this simply in the sense that this would suggest an inter-regnum.

On the other hand, if you think starting a new era with a fresh page is a good approach you'll go for an outsider, and maybe even someone not currenty tipped as a favourite. One problem which the Economist indirectly touches on is that this is a bad moment for the change in the sense that Bush's authority (see the Miers affair) is under even more challenge than it usually is. This may not make for a good decision. Obviously in this sense Kohn is a safe bet.

OTOH I still go with Bernanke, even though he may be too much of an academic and an intellectual for the bankers to stomach.

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