Forthcoming books: A Brief Economic History of the World, 10,000 BC to 2000 AD

With this post I am starting a new occasional series on forthcoming books. Greg Clark, Professor of Economics at University of California, Davis, has a book of economic history to be published by the Princeton University Press. Going by the rather ambitious title The Conquest of Nature: A Brief Economic History of the World, 10,000 BC-2000 AD, most of the chapters are available online.

Clark's central thesis, outlined in the Introduction, is that world economic history poses three interconnected problems: the "long persistence of the Malthusian trap, the escape from that trap in the Industrial Revolution, and the consequent Great Divergence".

The basic outline of world economic history is surprisingly simple, and can be presented in one diagram as in figure 1 below. Before 1800 income per capita for all societies we observe fluctuated, but there was no upward trend. The great span of human history - from the arrival of anatomically modern man to Confucius, Plato, Aristotle, Michelangelo, Shakespeare, Beethoven, and all the way to Jane Austen indeed - was lived in societies caught in the Malthusian trap. Jane Austen may write about refined conversation over tea served in China cups, but for the mass of people as late as 1813 material conditions were no better than their ancestors of the African savannah. The Darcys were few, the poor plentiful.

Then came the Industrial Revolution. Incomes per capita began a sustained growth in a favored group of countries around 1820. In the last two hundred years in the most fortunate countries real incomes per capita have risen 15 fold. But prosperity has not come to all societies. Living standards in some countries are as low as they were for the mass of humanity before 1800. Indeed there is good argument that living conditions for the poorest countries in the world are lower now than for the typical society before 1800. This divergence in fortunes since the Industrial Revolution has recently been labeled “the Great Divergence.”

Clark takes a strictly empirical approach to the topic, which may not be to everyone's taste. But it is crammed full of data, is theoretically informed, easy to read and cites much of the key literature. A useful tome for the many economic students - and graduates - who have neglected economic history and want to make amends.

UPDATE: Ed Hugh adds some citations of Clark's work (see comments below), and both Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution and Brad deLong have also linked to this new book. DeLong writes:

It looks excellent - although he does, I think, place much too much stress on increasing prudence as the driver of the Industrial Revolution.

For more economic history links, see Brad DeLong's other post, Economics 210a 2005-2006: First Half Syllabus. 

Comments

[Edward Hugh]

Oh, I'm really pleased you've picked up on Greg Clark, I think he's excellent. Especially his work on demographic changes in the UK in the seventeenth century: basically the marriage age cam down and fertility went up. Then the UK discovered it was built on a mountain of coal and started using the extra people to dig it out of the ground, selling the produce abroad and buying grain to feed the higher population with the proceeds. Free trade triumphs over Malthus, a win-win technical change/population growth dynamic takes root and industrial revolution here we come. Fascinating stuff.

This Chapter:

http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/GlobalHistory/Global%20History-10.pdf

Which is based on this earlier paper:

http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/papers/secret2001.pdf

gets to the heart of the thing.

"Part of the reason for the traditional overestimation of the efficiency gains of the Industrial Revolution was that much of the simultaneous growth of population and living standards in the years 1770-1860, the breaking of the old Malthusian constraints, was created by events outside England. Most of the ability of the economy to sustain both income gains and population growth after 1800 was created by events outside England: specifically lower population growth in England’s trading partners, declining transport costs, the addition to the world economy of the new land of the Americas, and the growing efficiency of the American economy."

Read and enjoy everyone.