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Friday, November 18, 2005


Edward Hugh

I agree with you New Economist. One of the problems he doesn't seem to twig is that this won't be a hurricane: ie it won't just pass. If you don't have immunity then you will remain vulnerable. Either you need the vaccine, or you need to have the flu, hopefully in a more moderate version of the mutation. I think simply staying away from school for a couple of weeks won't do it.

Obviously there are different types of advice here for the different risk categories, people need to be informed and act accordingly. I think it is difficult to SARS in the sense that Sars was hard to spread.

If you want a giggle, take a look at my "Denationalise Tamiflu Now!" over at a Few Euros More.

Richard Pearson Sr

We do it with animals, why not quarentine people arriving from high risk areas or at least giving them the flu vacine unless they have proof of having already had the shot?

Edward Hugh

"why not quarentine people arriving from high risk areas or at least giving them the flu vacine unless they have proof of having already had the shot?"

The problem is Richard that the high risk areas will be all our major cities - the big nodes - and we could be talking of weeks, if not a couple of months while the thing passes. So putting everything locktight is going to be virtually impossible.

Also, we need to be clear: there is no vaccine (yet). Tamiflu is *not* a viral specific vaccine, it is a generic palliative. And there are on-costs to taking it since there are known side-effects (even if not necessarily the ones claimed for Japan). Having the appropriate vaccine will need time after the strain breaks loose, and manufacturing and distributing it will need time. Meantime the flu will go the rounds, this is why the WHO take it as read that if the thing breaks lose it *will* become a pandemic. So some of us are just going to have to take our chances.

Obviously building 'fire breaks' in the initial instances will be important, precisely to try and stop it taking hold, but most of this will likely take place in Asia.

High risk people (rather than areas) is another issue. People over 65, and young children need to be protected first, plus others with medical conditions which increase the risk. So on these grounds closing nursery, and possibly primary schools might be a good idea. I think we have to rely on agencies like the WHO to spell this out for us when the time comes (if it comes).

Jordan Spizike

Cosmic beautiful, Because the love of god, Flowers are beautiful, because of love, The sky is greenery is beautiful, because BaiYunZhi love, Earth is beautiful, because the love of friends! My good wishes,Through the space sent to you!

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