China: How rapid a convergence?

My post a fortnight ago asking Can China overtake the US? generated a lot of interest, so a new presentation on the same topic by OECD economist Richard Herd is worth a mention. Speaking at an OECD workshop on global convergence today, Richard asks: China: How rapid a convergence? (PPT). It's a PowerPoint, not a paper - but some of the charts are pretty interesting.

Comments

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I think this analysis makes some seriously flaws assumptions. Though it is true the Japanese and German post-war boom were to an extent exaggerated in terms of its future potential, those countries were very small. China, afterall, has about 1.3 billion people. This means growth can continue down the 10% range for decades to come simply because their industrialization has not hit the diminishing return that you have seen in japan/germany and other asian tigers. On a per-capital basis, China is comparable columbia and it only needs to hit per-capital basis as costa rica or malaysia to over take current U.S GDP.

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What an excellent blog! This means growth can continue down the 10% range for decades to come simply because their industrialization has not hit the diminishing return that you have seen in japan/germany and other asian tigers.

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