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Tuesday, January 31, 2006

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iasius

"I do not consider this to be the greatest threat facing the US or global economy. As I have argued before, the experience of both the Reserve Bank of Australian and Bank of England is that housing bubbles can successfully be deflated over a 2-3 year period by steady rate hikes and clear, consistent messages to investors. If the Federal Reserve is able to follow their example - and there's no obvious reason why they can't - that would detract around 1.0 to 1.5 percentage points a year from GDP growth. Enough to drag annual US growth below trend, but nowhere near recession territory."

I think you underestimate the importance of the US economy. IMO Australia and the UK could manage such a soft landing only because global growth stayed so strong. The end of the housing bubble in the USA however would have far larger effects that would in the end feed back to the USA.
It's easy to engineer a soft landing when global growth is the strongest in 30 years and you are responsible for a relatively small part of the economic world. The USA is different.

Also, I haven't looked at numbers, but since when were housing bubbles ever truly national in any country, ie every single house increased in price everywhere.

Lord

The real bubbles are in those cities with auto manufacturing plants that will be shut down. And their prices hardly even increased.

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If there is a bubble (big if), there is a lot of money to be made if someone is well versed in short sales. I'm not a man of great economic means, but I have positioned myself to reap the rewards of a decline in property values or increase in foreclosure rates. Low interest rate financing coupled with excessive lending will have the banks begging for a short sale if the real estate market declines.

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According to my mortgage biz friend (who I regard as smarter than the average bear), historically there has never been a 'bubble' pop on any more than a local level.There are so many other places in the country where you could live in a relative palace for that amount.

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The real bubbles are in those cities with auto manufacturing plants that will be shut down. And their prices hardly even increased.

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I think you underestimate the importance of the US economy. IMO Australia and the UK could manage such a soft landing only because global growth stayed so strong. The end of the housing bubble in the USA however would have far larger effects that would in the end feed back to the USA.
It's easy to engineer a soft landing when global growth is the strongest in 30 years and you are responsible for a relatively small part of the economic world. The USA is different.

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Home Loan

There is definitely a current housing and mortgage crisis in the United States. However, the government is suggesting new reforms that will completely change the mortgage industry. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will be slowly phased out and it will be more difficult for consumers to obtain a home loan.

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