« Happiness researchers challenge revealed preference theory | Main | UK productivity: the London effect »

Thursday, January 26, 2006


Angry Economist

My very own golden rules of forecasting:

1. Forecasts should be used as part of a process of trying to understand the future – they provide only a partial insight into the economy
2. Any judgements about the future are not facts waiting to happen – there is a chance that they won’t come true
3. Any judgements about the future are based on current information – and this information can be out of date, inaccurate or wrong
4. The forecasts you use should be based on the most accurate (thanks dearieme) and up-to-date information available
5. It is strongly recommended that forecasts do not lead policy response
6. For any forecast it is correct to focus on broad movements and changes rather than on precise numbers
The user should recognise that all projections are subject to error
7. Forecasts cannot predict shocks or sudden events
8. Forecasts should be read with a critical eye – they are usually based on modelling techniques and can overlook the specific uniqueness of local characteristics
9. Finally, forecasts should never be used as the sole input into planning or decision-making


istanbul hotel israel graund hotel hotelles artic thanks This article is very beautiful, I really get very beyendım text files manually to your health as you travesti very beautiful and I wish you continued success with all respect ..

Thanks for helpful information travesti siteleri you catch up us with your sagol instructional çok explanation.
en iyi travestiler en guzel travesti

travesti forum
istanbul travestileri
ankara travestileri
izmir travestileri
bursa travestileri
travesti siteleri
travesti video
güncel blog
turkce mirc

The comments to this entry are closed.


  • TEST

  • Subscribe in NewsGator Online

Economist Weblogs



  • This is a personal web site, produced in my own time and solely reflecting my personal opinions. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of my employer, past or present, or any other organisation with which I may be affiliated. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.