Standard macro models often don't work very well in China, as two central bank economists have discovered. Stefan Gerlach and Wensheng Peng's new paper, Output gaps and inflation in Mainland China (BIS Working Paper No. 194) estimates output gaps using three methods for Mainland China, using annual data from 1982 to 2003. The three estimates are stikingly similar - but "standard Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well".
This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as the effect of price deregulation, trade liberalisation and/or changes in the exchange rate regime. We reestimate the Phillips curves assuming that there is an unobserved variable that follows an AR(2) process. The modified model fits the data much better and accounts for some of the surprising features of the simple Phillips curve estimates.
The final model implies that inflation is driven by three factors: (a) aggregate demand, as captured by the output gap; (b) supply shocks; and (c) shocks to the unobserved variable. The final model "is quite parsimonious in that it involves only four parameters".
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