BLS: "job creation is at a historic low"

A new Bureau of Labor Statistics working paper by R. Jason Faberman compares job flows in the last two US recoveries, and finds that although the two latest downturns "appear remarkably similar", their underlying labour dynamics "are quite different". Faberman finds that the 2001-03 US recession involved "a large, pervasive drop in job creation" that was "..truly unique", and concludes that "job creation is at a historic low". The abstract for Job Flows and the Recent Business Cycle: Not All 'Recoveries' Are Created Equal puts it like this:

The last two economic downturns are notable for their slow labor market recoveries. Yet, the behavior of their underlying gross job flows is quite different. The 1990-92 period had a relatively slow decline in job destruction, while the 2001-03 period had a large, persistent decline in job creation that occurs across most industries.

The dynamics of the latter period run counter to the conventional wisdom that large movements in job destruction drive business cycles. Evidence spanning the entire postwar period suggests that job creation is at a historic low, and that its recent patterns are part of decades-long decline in the magnitude and volatility of job reallocation.

Faberman draws a link to the recent work by Comin and Philippon of an observed decline in aggregate volatility, arguing that "the decline in job reallocation is closely related" to this reserach.

I find that while the volatility of net growth in manufacturing drops abruptly in the mid-1980’s, the level and volatility of the underlying job reallocation begins their decline in the early 1960’s. This only adds to the puzzle of understanding the decline in aggregate volatility...

A fascinating paper, with some great charts. Well worth a look.

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