« New book: China - The Balance Sheet | Main | Greg Mankiw has a blog »

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Comments

Ironman

Via James Hamilton's Econbrowser:

Jonathan Wright, a brilliant research economist at the Federal Reserve Board, recently completed a very interesting paper titled The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions. Wright's research seems to have been influential in Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's recent assessment that the current very flat yield curve does not signify a coming significant economic slowdown.

In a nutshell, Wright finds that the combination of yield curve inversion and a high federal funds rate provides the best prediction of future recessions, which dovetails nicely with Dattels and Rumpletin's arguments.

Political Calculations offers a tool for finding the likelihood of a recession occurring in the U.S. within a twelve month period based upon Wright's work.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Information




  • TEST


  • Subscribe in NewsGator Online

Economist Weblogs

Categories

Disclaimer


  • This is a personal web site, produced in my own time and solely reflecting my personal opinions. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of my employer, past or present, or any other organisation with which I may be affiliated. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.