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Friday, April 14, 2006

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Edward Hugh

"provides "robust support for the global competition hypothesis""

This has been being argued by Rogoff for some time now. I agree with him. This is why the inflation targeting and good housekeeping at the central bank is way too simple. It matters, at least some version of it matters (I'm not a wholehearted IT fan), but its a long, long way from being the whole story.

"the risks of ongoing deflation due to globalization ...generally seem small, especially at the current juncture"

Small at this juncture, but what about at the next one?

"these import effects are neither regular nor persistent, and so cannot be relied upon to prevent higher inflation in the period ahead."

Nor, simply applying the same argument, can they be relied on to prevent deflation in the period after that. Volatility means what it says.

"So too have BIS researchers Claudio Borio and Andrew Filardo"

Borrio has been arguing about the dangers of Irving Fisher style debt deflation ever since the Nasdaq crash. That is why he has been popular with Roach. They are both pretty 'Austrian'.

"The global output gap" is an interesting idea. I go along with Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher's argument that in a globalised world the idea of a national output gap is less and less relevant, but globally the idea makes much more sense. This also fits in with Andy Xie's methodological proposal that in macro terms we stop thinking about the global economy as an agglomeration of individual partially-open economies, and instead consider it one single 'developing economy' with a lot of regional market imperfections (home bias etc). Personally I find this idea makes a lot more sense.

You can find a good example of Fisher's speeches here:

http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2006/fs060404.html

Tapsearch Com Editor

For a good real world resource for any study on Globalization, Free Trade and Workers Dignity, see Tapart News and Art that Talks at http://tapsearch.com/tapartnews.
The editor and artist is Ray Tapajna who also evaluates The World is Flat by New York Times writer Thomas Friedman based on real world experiences from the streets of USA as things actually are.
Many are missing in action from any kind of real reporting as exposed in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. A Silent Depression resides in the USA. Only about 38% of all workers in the USA qualify for unemployment insurance. See http://tapsearch.com/flatworld/
See also "if you are not part of any network, you do not exist" at http://www.experiencedesignernetwork.com/archives/000636.html

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Brad DeLong has posted a useful review of the economics of the immigration debate, comparing the research of David Card

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The editor and artist is Ray Tapajna who also evaluates The World is Flat by New York Times writer Thomas Friedman based on real world experiences from the streets of USA as things actually are.

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"the risks of ongoing deflation due to globalization ...generally seem small, especially at the current juncture"

Small at this juncture, but what about at the next one?

"these import effects are neither regular nor persistent, and so cannot be relied upon to prevent higher inflation in the period ahead."

Nor, simply applying the same argument, can they be relied on to prevent deflation in the period after that. Volatility means what it says.

"So too have BIS researchers Claudio Borio and Andrew Filardo"

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If it were true that marginal utility for any good were always decreasing, then the answer would be C. But while it is usually true, that isn't always true.

If you are making a dinner for 8 and only have enough food for 4, then the marginal utility of the food you have is low, but the marginal utility of the food for the 8th person is high - with that, you have enough.

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This also fits in with Andy Xie's methodological proposal that in macro terms we stop thinking about the global economy as an agglomeration of individual partially-open economies

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There are a few branches of Economics that do not use math: economic history, history of economic thought, Political Economy (Marxism). All of them have no employment options outside of academia, and the salaries reflect that.

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