UK migration: The Bulgarians are coming

Continuing with yesterday's migration theme, a recent report from the Institute for Public Policy Research estimates that 56,000 Romanian and Bulgarian workers likely to come to Britain next year. Quoting the media release:

ippr estimates that around 41,000 Romanians and 15,000 Bulgarians will come to work in Britain in the first year after their countries join the European Union. This estimate is based on what happened after the last EU enlargement in 2004. Although Romania and Bulgaria are poorer than the countries that joined last time, most migrating Romanians and Bulgarians will want to go to Italy, Spain and Greece because they are closer and have higher numbers already resident.

ippr argues that the Government should allow labour market access to Romanian and Bulgarian nationals to work in Britain when accession is expected in 2007 because:

• new inflows are likely to be relatively small
• the impacts on the UK labour market are likely to be positive
• free access will have to be introduced eventually and a separate scheme would increase bureaucracy
• those Romanians and Bulgarians already here would be able to regularise their status.

The IPPR report, EU Enlargement: Bulgaria and Romania - migration implications for the UK, is available free to download.

Bulgarians and Romanians are currently required to hold a visa to travel to the UK and can stay with a visa for work. EU accession is expected on 1 January 2007 but could be postponed for one year if Bulgaria and Romania, with a combined population of around 30 million, do not meet the joining criteria.

Comments

[venci bogdanov]

"The Bulgarians are coming!!!"
Why should the title of the article mention only the bulgarians, since their expecting number, comparing to the romanians is almost three times smaller? Does the name of the bulgarians sound more dangerous and with it is regarded as more suitable for the style of the awful news?

[New Economist]

Artistic license, Venci. "The Romanians and the Bulgarians are both coming!" just doesn't have the same ring, does it? Plus, I prefer Sofia to Bucharest.

Apologies to all those 'dangerous' Romanians out there who have been so grossly overlooked by this blog.

And no, I don't consider this "awful news" at all. More open borders in Europe are preferable to closed ones.

[Aleksandar]

I think the Bulgarians coming in UK will bring only good features to UK economy and society....

[Joe]

When are people going to wake up!!

Romania has a large number of organised criminal gangs with links to other Eastern European gangs. With the the UK's patheticly slack laws it is a window of opportunity for these gangs.

Mass immigration is NOT the solution to the UK's skills gap problem!!

The education system needs to be turned around to what it used to be.

[Lili]

Why everybody thinks that the bulgarians would prefer UK. I doubt. They would prefer to live in countries with better social standart as Germany or Austria.
Besides there are so many English in Bulgaria buying properties.

[hello]

1. I think that with Poland, a much stronger "gangster" channel was opeened.
2. Think globally. Divide et Impera. Better "suffer" at the beginning a little-bit but have more control over things, than having a big big surprise later
3. So let Romanian citizens be free as you are! If you have problems against gangster fight against them not against normal people like you.

[Rebecca Anderson]

Yes, immigration needs to be under control. Thats a final word and alas, we should wake up!!!!

[Lafayette]

NE: "More open borders in Europe are preferable to closed ones."

I can't see the good sense in this. Please explain.

Why open borders to economic refugees at a time when there is NO work for them?

I think you may have your "UK" blinders on. If the UK can provide work, then, yes, open YOUR border to them. But, if there is no work, then, don't expect anone else to do so. Otherwise, they just end up on the dole or worse, in prison (as the statistics show). So, better YOUR dole than mine.

Only selective immigration will work. If a job market is tight and talent is needed, then the doors should be open. They can be hired on a temporary status that lasts, say, five years. After that, they can chose to immigrate definitively, or not.

BTW, which job market is "tight" in Europe at the moment? Iceland? Funny - we don't see many going there ...

[Arthur Eckart]

Lafayette, right, there seems to be few jobs for immigrants in the U.S. and U.K. Most articles about open borders seem to put more weight on the positives than the negatives. Immigration increases national output, and limits or lowers wages and prices. However, per-capita output may fall and income inequality may rise, because most immigrants are low-skilled. Also, poor immigrants have a disproportionate larger share of children, which may create strains on the health, education, and welfare systems. Moreover, crime may increase, which is costly to society, e.g. through insurance, security systems, prisons, criminal justice system, etc. I suspect, poor immigrants are a net cost rather than a net benefit to society.

[Arthur Eckart]

Also, I may add, when the U.S. had large waves of immigrants from the 1880s to 1920s, not much was spent on the criminal justice, health, education, and welfare systems. Also, I believe, the U.S. didn't have a federal income tax system in that period. So, the benefits of immigration outweighed the costs to U.S. society. Many European countries have much more generous social programs. Laws in Europe may be lax compared to the U.S., although that may cause other social costs. So, it seems, the costs of immigration are higher in Europe than the U.S.

[Lafayette]

Eckart: "Laws in Europe may be lax compared to the U.S., although that may cause other social costs. So, it seems, the costs of immigration are higher in Europe than the U.S."

It is more a question of demography, both in America and the EU. These are developed economies, far less agrarian than a half a century ago (as regards the EU) or a century ago (as regards the US), and therefore birthrates are dropping drastically.

Both regions, in an absolute sense, will need immigrants to maintain its present level of economic activity - not only for its means of production (of goods and services) but also as consumers.

Europe has awakened to the problem and there is afoot some movement towards a common EU approach to immigration. It will be selective with caps on unskilled labor (which tends to be seasonal) as well as skilled labor the recruitment of which will be undertaken actively in those nations that train their citizens to these skill levels.

Let's not forget that, as life spans extend (presently around 80 in both regions), people are living longer periods of retirement. Their financial support depends upon an active economy and not their contributions over their periods of active employment (which never have and never will be sufficient). It is paramount for the elderly that either they continue working, but at more relaxed schedules (part time, for instance until they are 70). Why? In order to maintain their retirement lifestyle levels that will otherwise degrade if dependent solely upon state funding.

THEREFORE their economies must remain robust to offer both their employment for longer periods AND a sufficient tax base to pay for their retirement benefits. To remain robust, the EU and American economies will depend upon immigration.

But, the hordes taking boats across treacherous waters simply as "economic refugees" ... that is over. And, if America needs an Israeli-like wall to finally get the point across to the Latin Americans, then that too is a valid approach. A sovereign nation should not have to "submit" to random immigration - but have the right to control it.

[Arthur Eckart]

Lafayette, the U.S. Immigration Act of 1965 flattened the skill bell curve of immigrants, i.e. there were more high and low skilled workers with fewer middle skilled workers. Also, there were fewer immigrants from Europe and more from other regions of the world. However, illegal immigration skewed the bell curve towards low skilled workers. Nonetheless, there have been adjustments that increased the levels of high skilled immigrants. Of course, this has been one factor that worsened U.S. income inequality. U.S. immigration remains high. So, that will somewhat offset the U.S. labor supply imbalance. Also, I suspect, Americans will work longer, since the saving rate is low. It seems, drug laws are more lax in Europe. A large proportion of the U.S. prison population is drug-related crimes.

[Catalin]

Stop Racism and Xenofobia!If 100000bulgarians+300000romanians=400000 NORMAL people will come uk and mean that sexual deviances,alchoolism,paedophilia will decrease in this country where the eu statistics warning and claim to be very high in comparison with the others eu countries!So be happy!!!

[Lafayette]

"So be happy!!!"

Yours is a curious formula for happiness, poor fellow.

[Mike]

Bulgaria and Romania may have an iconomiacl issue at this moment
but calling them criminals because of it is ridiculous.
Many gypsy's live in both of those countries, which have basically become anorganized crime. But these are not people from Romania or Bulgaria.
Gypsies originated from India. I am not balming all gypsys. But having visited both countries for couple of times I saw a pattern. I have met one of the best doctors when I visited Bulgaria. And I see a lot of potential coming out from both regions.

[LA]

I AM NOT AGAINST BULGARIANS COMING TO USA ON WORK STUDENT VISA. I UNDERSTOOD THAT USA HOURLY SALARY FOR THEM WAS LOWER THAN IN UK OR OTHER EURO COUNTRIES. NO OFFENSE INTENDED AT ALL.

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