India is catching up

Yesterday's GDP data shows India gaining on China in the growth stakes. Anand Giridharadas of the International Herald Tribune reports:

India is closing in on the economic growth rates of more than 10 percent that China has enjoyed, according to government data released Wednesday, showing a 9.3 percent expansion in the first quarter.

The Indian economy grew unexpectedly at its fastest pace in more than two years, according to the year-on- year data for the first three months, as the pace of agricultural expansion nearly doubled to 5.5 percent from 2.9 percent a year earlier. The growth rate of farm output jumped almost sixfold in the year that ended March 31, to 3.9 percent from 0.7 percent the year before.

In an interview Wednesday, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said that according to provisional data, the farm growth came from diversification into exports of fruits and vegetables, as state governments and companies seek to persuade farmers to abandon wheat and rice for mangoes and okra.

"Agriculture, I think, has done well last year because the non-cereal production has been very good, especially horticulture," Chidambaram said in his office here.

..."Double-digit growth is simply a function of three numbers," Chidambaram said. "Agriculture must grow at 4, services at 12, manufacturing at 12, in order to achieve 10 percent growth."

In recent months, manufacturing, too, has shown a turnaround after years of sluggishness. Industrial growth hovered around 6 percent annually from 1991 to 2004. But signs of a turnaround have been apparent in recent data, and the figures released Wednesday showed manufacturing increasing 8.9 percent in the first three months of this year.

Another important source of growth for the economy is increasing spending by a rising consumer class of call-center workers, software writers, offshore researchers and other new-economy workers. Their spending on hotels, mobile- phone subscriptions and other services grew 12.9 percent, the fastest pace in more than two years and up from 10.2 percent growth last year.

"Optimism stems from very strong domestic demand, high export growth and the entrepreneurial skills of our manufacturers and service providers," Chidambaram said. Together, the unexpected successes in manufacturing and now in agriculture suggest that more than a decade of economic liberalization is beginning to spread beyond the cloistered domains of malls and corporate parks.

Comments

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Should India go for Capital Account Convertibility?
What does John Williamson, the father of the Washington Consensus think; ....
http://truckandbarter.com/mt/archives/2006/06/should_india_go.html

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