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Friday, July 21, 2006

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Arthur Eckart

It does seem to be a paradox that China's inflation rate is 1%, while its economy is expanding 10%. A larger potential Chinese labor force (e.g. with required skills and higher labor force participation rate) may provide enough slack in the labor market to offset strains in other inputs, while maintaining productivity (also, the Phillips Curve, i.e. inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment is typically effective only below the natural rate of unemployment; or NAIRU, the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment). Of course, there may be other factors contributing to low inflation. China seems to be following the "Japan Model (e.g. export-led growth to eventually achieve full employment)," although that may be difficult with 10 times the population of Japan. To achieve full employment, it may be necessary for China to export more and more goods too cheaply, and eventually compete directly with Japan.

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