It's tough being a Chancellor or Finance minister. When the economy is going smoothly, no one takes much notice. But when economy worsens, you get the blame. Richard Adams writes in Today's Guardian reports that Voters fail to credit Brown for growth:
Gordon Brown may boast that he is the first chancellor to preside over almost a decade of economic growth but most voters think he does not deserve the credit. The results of a Guardian/ICM poll published today show that only 37% of people feel Mr Brown has created Britain's economic success since Labour came to power in May 1997. The poll also found that successes such as rising employment and falling rates of poverty are not being acknowledged by most voters.
A majority of those polled, 52%, say they do not think Mr Brown has been responsible for Britain's non-stop growth. The findings are a blow to supporters of the chancellor who argue that his reputation as the architect of growth will pave his way to No 10. Even among Labour voters fewer than two out of three are willing to give him credit.
...Voters are divided on whether Britain would have become richer since 1997 regardless of Labour's policies. While 49% credit Labour's policies for some prosperity during that period, 41% think the government has made little difference.
...More than four people out of five - 83% - say that the average person finds it harder to afford somewhere to live, while just 14% disagree - a finding that follows the sustained rise in house prices since 1997. Similarly, although the latest labour market statistics show record numbers in work, only 29% of those questioned said it was easier to find a job than in 1997, compared with 57% who disagreed. The pessimism over the job market may reflect a recent rise in unemployment.
This pessimism may have political consequences. When governments are no longer considered able to deliver economic prosperity, they risk losing office. The article notes:
The results of the poll come the day after a Guardian/ICM poll of party voting intentions showing the Conservatives with a nine percentage point lead over Labour, 40% to 31%, with Labour recording its lowest level of support in 19 years.
Together the findings suggest that Labour may be losing its reputation for economic competence as memories of Black Wednesday and the recession of the early 1990s under John Major fade.
However, voter perceptions are clearly biased. One suspects that many respondents to the August ICM poll could not recall accurately how their household was faring back in 1997. As the article notes, only 29% of people agreed 'it is easier to find a job' now than in 1997, despite the large fall in the unemployment rate since then. Likewise, only 41% agreed that 'my family and I are better off' than in in 1997; 55% disagreed. This despite lower interest rates, falling unemployment, huge increases in property values, and a one-third increase in real wages!
Yet, seemingly contradicting this gloom, when asked specifically about their own situation, people were more upbeat. Consider this question:
| 5. Please consider the economy as it is for the moment, your current personal financial situation, and your ability to keep up with the cost of living. Taking this into account, how confident do you feel about things at the moment? | |
| Very confident | 11% |
| Fairly confident | 48% |
| Not very confident | 30% |
| Not at all confident | 11% |
| Don't know | 1% |
Almost six in ten say they are are fairly or very confident 'about things at the moment'. Clearly there are survey design problems, with hopelessly muddled questions like the one above (is it asking about the economy, people's financial situation, or the cost of living?). Major heuristic problems - such as recall bias - are no doubt are also at work. Unfortunately, poorly designed 'polls' of this kind are the bread and butter of the dailies, providing eye-catching but often quite meaningless headlines.
Personally, I wouldn't write off Gordon Brown - or the Labour government - just yet.
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