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Tuesday, August 22, 2006

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jon livesey

Just a data point, but I've seen comments that suggest that the prevous euphoria about German growth failed to take into account the delayed effects of ECB rate rises and Germany's own fiscal tightening, both of which take a few months to show up in the growth numbers.

A. PERLA

I distrust "forward looking" indicators. They've been, for me, more wrong than right too often.

A good indicator, if we must read indicators, is the recent downturn of French unemployment. The French Finance Minister predicts an annual growth at the high-end of the 2.3 to 2.5% range.

Two and a half percent, in France, is necessary to create new jobs - as opposed to filling old jobs that were simply lost due to constriction of consumer demand as has been the case over the past decade or so.

If this pace of diminishing unemployment can be replicated in Germany, then the two "motors" will have kicked in and a sustained growth expected. More people working means more people spending, which means more people working - the virtuous circle.

If - the big little word.

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