The decline of the middle class?

Just how is the middle class faring in the modern American economy, and how should progressives tailor their message and program accordingly? The editors of American Prospect magazine have been running a series of posts on their website this week under the banner Debating the Middle:

What's (Not) the Matter With the Middle Class? by Stephen Rose
A Democratic message of misery is wrong for middle-income voters. Rather than documenting how the middle class is falling behind (it isn't), progressives might do better finding ways to help more middle-class families succeed.

Populist Persuasion by Lawrence Mishel
Rose does not believe a populist economic agenda is warranted or is useful for attracting middle-class voters to the Democrats. That's a shame. The vast working and middle classes in America have not fared well over the last six years, and Democrats should hardly pretend otherwise.

Another Year, Another Wage Loss by Robert Kuttner
Americans suffers not just from reduced economic opportunity but from diminished political imagination as well.

Don't Look Back by Matthew Yglesias
Is the middle class worse off now than it was thirty years ago? That's the wrong question, and the wrong debate for progressives to be having.

Guess What? There's Reason for Gloom by Jeff Madrick
Steve Rose is a good friend; I have quoted him in my own writing. But his interpretation of income data requires a serious rebuttal. His interpretation is disturbingly misleading.

The Real Issue Is Risk, by Jacob S. Hacker (a shorter version of his post below)
Political candidates and leaders should, first and foremost, offer a message of truth. And the truth is that, after a generation in which more and more economic risks have been shifted onto the shoulders of hardworking middle-class Americans, the middle class is insecure and in need of a serious agenda of economic change.

Walk and Chew Gum at the Same Time, by Jason Furman
Damn Matthew Yglesias. Somehow he hacked into my computer and stole my argument on the Rose-Mishel debate - before I had even written it. Damn he’s good.

Bad Times, Bad Policies, by Dean Baker
Steve Rose's tale of good times for the middle class sounds like something from at least another country, if not another planet.There is no reason that we should give in to the soft bigotry of incredibly low expectations.

Both-And, Not Either-Or, by Ruy Teixeira
I commend Rose and his colleagues for forcefully raising the importance of optimism and economic opportunity to the Democratic economic message. They are right that a "message of misery" - if one was indeed on offer - would not work. But their approach is also too one-sided.

Likewise, the September 2006 issue of The Democratic Strategist carries "an important discussion on the Democratic middle-class economic agenda:"

Message of Misery, by Anne Kim, Adam Solomon, and Jim Kessler
$23,700. That is the household income level at which a white person became more likely to vote for a Republican over a Democrat in congressional races in 2004. That's $5,000 above the poverty line for a family of four, less than half the median income of the typical voting household of all races, and an emphatic repudiation of all things Democratic among the white middle class. Obtaining a sustainable Democratic majority in either house will be impossible unless there is a significant change in this economic tipping point.

Truth-Telling, Populism and Inspirational Politics, by John Halpin
The Third Way authors provide a useful service in pointing out a problem that many progressive activists frequently fail to recognize. A political message that essentially says, "Here are 50 reasons why your life sucks," is not a compelling way to attract anyone to the progressive cause let alone reach the all important middle-class voters who have abandoned the Democratic Party in droves. Barring severe or sharp economic decline, attempts to browbeat people with negative statistics and a barrage of scary anecdotes will almost always lose out at the national level to a more hopeful and optimistic vision.

A Happy Face Isn't Enough, by Elizabeth Warren
Without middle class support, no political party can remain in power. The trio of Kim, Solomon and Kessler has this right. The message should be tattooed on the inside of the eyelids of every office seeker in America.

Time to Move beyond the Clinton Playbook: Don't Neglect Economic Security, by William A. Galston
I agree with much of this memo. The Democrats do have a big problem with middle-class Americans, starting (but not ending) with white voters. Optimism sells better than pessimism.

Message of Truth: Security and Opportunity Go Hand-in-Hand, by Jacob S. Hacker
Having just finished a book entitled The Great Risk Shift: The Assault on American Jobs, Families, Health Care, and Retirement-And How You Can Fight Back, I would guess that Anne Kim, Adam Solomon, and Jim Kessler (hereafter "KSK") will accuse me of peddling a "message of misery."

Will the Real Middle Class Please Stand Up, by Ruy Teixeira
Let me begin on a note of agreement with Kim, Solomon and Kessler (KSK): the Democrats have a very large problem with middle-class voters, particularly white middle-class voters. And crafting a potent economic message is key to reaching these voters. A better national security message and/or reassuring these voters on values issue will not be enough to enlist a critical mass of these voters in the Democratic camp.

See the discussion over at Mark Thoma's post The Middle Class Risk-Return Tradeoff. He cites his earlier post Is Worker Insecurity a Myth?, which is also worth reading.

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