Technology boosts trade boosts migration

Trade fosters migration (and vice versa), while various technological trends enhance trade, and should thus indirectly foster migration. So argue Jan Hofmann and Marion König at Deutsche Bank in a new paper that investigates the chain of cause and effect that interlinks technology, trade and migration: Technology boosts trade boosts migration: On the interplay of three key globalisation phenomena (PDF). Those interlinkages matter:

All told, our study strongly suggests that to understand and forecast migration (and then population) patterns, we have to scrutinise the complete chain of cause and effect that interlinks technology, trade and migration.

The paper's main policy conclusion?

For those countries that badly need immigration e.g. owing to an ageing own workforce, trade openness should be a priority. Having said that, as more countries will become full-blown knowledge economies in the next decades, the old Ricardian notion of differences in technology (and thus labour productivity) driving migration could get a new meaning: differences in nations’ innovation capacity could take the lead in driving migrant flows. The countries with the most creative juices are likely be the next immigration magnets, rather than the old-school efficiency hunters.

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