UK labour market holding up

The UK labour market is holding up reasonably well, according to this morning's ONS labour market statistics (PDF). Employment grew by 83,000 in the quarter to August 2006, and the unemployment rate edged up only modestly to 5.5% (from 5.4% last quarter). Public sector employment has fallen slightly over the past year, while private sector employment rose by 1.0%. Encouragingly, the economic inactivity rate continued to fall, with more people either in work or looking for a job.

Market reports focused on a 10,200 rise in the claimant count, compared with expectations of no change. But this overlooks the fact that the claimant count rate has been steady at 3.0% for the past seven months - hardly sign of a deteriorating job market.

Average earnings growth, both excluding and including bonuses, has fallen. The Average Earnings Index excluding bonuses fell from 3.7% to 3.6% growth over the year - its lowest annual pace since January 2004. That should please members of the Monetary Policy Commitee, particularly new members Andrew Sentance and Timothy Besley. According to MPC Minutes released this morning, they both voted to increase official interest rate this month due to concerns about prices and wages.

The relatively brisk pace of expansion in Britain's labour force (up 1.8% over the past year) coupled with gradually rising unemployment and a lack of wage pressures might be explained by the large influx of migrant workers from central and eastern Europe.  However, none of the research I have seen to date has found a significant unemployment or wage effect. Either other factors are at work, or it is simply too soon for these impacts to start showing up in the aggregate data.

Comments

[William Hallowell]

While a bit off topic, I wasn't sure where to post this. It's a study on U.S. foreign relations and it's unlike anything you've ever seen. There are economic implications and issues sorrounding the issues America faces.

Here at Public Agenda, we’ve released a report that will provide political bloggers with Americans’ opinions on foreign policy issues, and is certain to be a basis for political commentary.

In a world strewn with violence and highly-charged international issues, Americans are taking notice. Using our “Anxiety Indicator,” Public Agenda has found some hard-hitting trends in American opinions and fears regarding U.S. foreign policy.

Here at Public Agenda, we’re dedicated to finding out where the nation stands, and through the creation of our “Anxiety Indicator,” we’ve been able to do just that. Our findings are extensive and expose the fact that citizens are broadly uneasy about American foreign policy.

In fact, the public lacks confidence in the measures being taken to ensure America’s security. Less than 33% of Americans give the U.S. government an “A” or a “B” grade for its execution of the following foreign policy issues: reaching goals in Iraq and Afghanistan, maintaining good relationships with Muslim countries and protecting U.S. borders from illegal immigration. And these are just a few of the findings.

According to the indicator, eight in10 Americans feel the world is becoming a more dangerous place for Americans. The Foreign Policy Index also takes into account citizens’ feelings on 25 influential international issues. Want to learn more? Go to http://www.publicagenda.org/foreignpolicy/index.cfm to download the report.

These are some of the other startling findings:

- 83 percent say they are worried about the way things are going for the United States in world affairs (35 percent worry "a lot", with an additional 48 percent saying they worry "somewhat.")
- 79 percent say the world is becoming more dangerous for the United States and the American people
- 69 percent say the United States is doing a fair or poor job in creating a more peaceful and prosperous world
- 64 percent say the rest of the world sees the United States negatively
- 58 percent say U.S. relations with the rest of the world are on the wrong track

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