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Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Comments

Lafayette

"How can we formulate a regression analysis to capture what competition from all these new sources does to incentivize American management?"

A better question might be "Why should we?".

Trying to use empirical economic data to forecast individual and not collective behaviour is dangerous. There are simply too many components involved, themselves the product of other forecasts, to make any such prevision believable.

It never ceases to amaze ... the presumption of some to forecast the behaviour of others. As if the "others" were all "rational" individuals behaving rationally.

Emotion, intuition, risk-taking ... they too have their effect on human behaviour. But, are they predictable?

Arthur Eckart

Individuals are generally rational. What may seem irrational is due to differences in information. A person with less information than another may seem to make irrational choices to the person with more information. Conversely, a person with more information than another may seem to make irrational choices to the person with less information. Nonetheless, their choices are rational, although perceived as irrational. Economists typically use aggregate data, which is the sum of individual data. Of course, a large general equilibrium model, e.g. to understand a large economy, is beyond the capabilities of people (which takes place in hundreds of dimensions). Nonetheless, economists will tie-together various models to achieve a crude understanding.

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I guess an analogy for that would be the 'Euro-dollar' which provides the same monetary unit to all of Europe. Imagine all countries around the world sitting in on the inity of the United Nations.
Canada switched to metric in an effort to make dealing with other countries easier. Prior to the switch, it was difficult to deal with it was difficult. Now all the business done by Canada in a metric system would make trade so much easier.

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