The ups and downs of productivity growth

US productivity growth has stepped up a few notches over the past decade, while in continental Europe it has if anything slowed over the same period. Spain's central bank have just published an assessment of these trends. The authors, Juan F. Jimeno, Esther Moral and Lorena Saiz, test whether those perceptions are valid in their Banco de España working paper Structural breaks in labor productivity growth: the United States vs. the European Union:

There is a stark contrast between the recent evolution of labor productivity (and TFP) in the US and EU countries. In the US it accelerated around the mid-1990s and there is evidence of reversion to a high-growth regime. In some EU countries, while employment-population ratios started to rise after a period of stagnant employment, labor productivity (and TFP) decelerated.

In this paper we apply univariate and multivariate methods, that have been used to detect structural breaks in productivity growth in the US economy, to EU data to confirm the existence of a significant permanent shift to lower productivity growth in some European countries around the mid-1990s.

We find a structural break in mean labour productivity growth in the US around the mid-1990s (towards higher growth), in Continental Europe around the early 1990s (towards lower growth) and no evidence of structural breaks in the UK.

Disappointing for Chancellor Brown, who has been trying to boost UK productivity growth for almost a decade. If growth has picked up, it is too soon or too small an effect to show in the medium-term figures.

Comments

[r4 cards]

A meme that is floating around is that these productivity gains partly include the effects of trade because things are counted as American products when they may include a majority of imported components, thus leading to what looks like a big value-add from American workers that really isn’t due to them at all. Do you care to comment on what portion of the productivity is really foreign productivity in disguise? On a related topic, are we doomed?

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