One of the tiresome feature of British economic debate are the regular warnings from City economists and others that the UK Budget is about to hit the wall. In nine years under Chancellor Brown it never has. Not that the state of the Budget is in fine shape, mind - government borrowing is sizeable given the robust growth of recent years. But neither is revenue falling off a cliff, as some would have you believe. Gary Duncan informs us in today's Times of a Pre-Budget bumper tax boost:
Bumper tax revenues last month allowed the Treasury to register its biggest cash surplus for any October since 1999, a welcome boost for Gordon Brown less than three weeks before what is likely to be his last Pre-Budget Report. The surge in key tax receipts last month tempered fears that strains on the public finances will force Mr Brown to raise his 2006-07 borrowing forecasts.
Of course, that wasn't enough for the doomsayers:
But City economists said that, with public spending continuing to run markedly ahead of plans, the Chancellor may still end up deeper in the red over the full financial year than he hoped in March.
Ho hum. My bet is come next year's Budget, the doomsayers will be proved wrong again.
Hardly surprising, really. It's the old problem that a group of recognized 'experts' aren't exactly disinterested in the stuff they're qualified to comment on. Well, that and Rupert Murdoch, naturally.
I wouldn't be surprised if prime minister Brown cuts taxes anyway. Feel good factor, business getting back on side, cut the Tory narrative about tax-and-spend Brown to shreds in one fell swoop... Where he'd find the money I don't know, but I think that'd be the clever political move.
Posted by: Jonn | Tuesday, November 21, 2006 at 10:04 AM
"Where he'd find the money I don't know, but I think that'd be the clever political move."
What politicians give with one hand, they take back with the other as regards taxes. Within a month of having cut income taxes, he'll announce a series of "directed" taxes, on cigarettes, petrol, toilet-paper, etc. ... ; ^ )
If Europe wanted to give consumers a shot in the arm, it would reduce the VAT to less than 10%. Of course, that is not going to happen. Too many Civil Servants would have to be shown the door to balance the budget. (Which, of itself, might not be such a bad idea on its own.)
Posted by: Lafayette | Tuesday, November 21, 2006 at 04:25 PM
"What politicians give with one hand, they take back with the other as regards taxes. Within a month of having cut income taxes, he'll announce a series of "directed" taxes, on cigarettes, petrol, toilet-paper, etc."
Oh, undoubtedly. But honestly, my money is on a headline tax cut, with stealth taxes going up elsewhere a few months later when everyone's stopped paying attention. This is, after all, the plan that served the Tories so well in '87 and '92.
Posted by: Jonn | Tuesday, November 21, 2006 at 06:08 PM
Never have so many paid so much for so little.
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