..under inflation targeting the United Kingdom has enjoyed, so far, the most stable macroeconomic environment in its recorded history, with the volatilities of the business-cycle components of real GDP, national accounts aggregates, and inflation measures having been, post-October 1992, systematically lower than for any of the previous monetary regimes/historical periods since the metallic standards era.
But where does this remarkable stability come from? A forthcoming article in the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking by ECB economist Luca Benati explains: The 'Great Moderation' in the United Kingdom (PDF). The paper compares the likelihood of two main rival explanations – the ‘good luck’ versus ‘good policy’ debate. Benati's main results are summarised below:
So, was it good luck? Based on our results ..it looks like it was indeed. To recapitulate, results from counterfactual simulations show that (1) the Great Inflation was due, to a dominant extent, to large demand non-policy shocks, and to a lesser extent–especially in 1973 and 1979–to supply shocks; (2) imposing the 1970s’ monetary rule over the entire sample period would have made almost no difference in terms of inflation and output growth outcomes; and (3) alternatively, mechanically ‘bringing the Monetary Policy Committee back in time’ would only have had a limited impact on the Great Inflation episode.
The results are, literally, shocking. But how to reconcile these findings with other recent analysis that points to a key role for the Bank of England's independence and inflation targeting regime?
Although in line with the literature on the U.S., these results are quite striking, in particular in the light of the more traditional, narrative approach which suggests that the monetary policy regime has been an important factor in explaining the Great Moderation in the United Kingdom.
One interpretation that could reconcile the two sets of results is based on the ‘indeterminacy hypothesis’ advocated, for the United States, by Clarida, Gali, and Gertler (2000) and Lubik and Schorfheide (2004). In a nutshell, the idea is that monetary policy was not sufficiently stabilising around the time of the Great Inflation, and therefore allowed self-fulfilling sunspot shocks. As our work in progress shows, this could have generated results qualitatively in line with those produced herein, as well as in the related work for the United States.
The "Great Inflation" and the "Great Moderation" periods may be explained, to a large extent, by a long-wave boom and bust business cycle (caused by uneven labor supply). Over the Great Inflation period, potential output was overstated, which lead to inflation. Over the Great Moderation period, potential output was understated, which lead to disinflation. Also, errors in monetary policy are more forgiving in a disinflationary period than in an inflationary period.
Posted by: Arthur Eckart | Tuesday, July 03, 2007 at 07:38 PM
What about demographics? Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu's excellent article, "The Young, the Old, and the Restless" (2007) provided a new perspective to this issue.
Posted by: Duncan Todd | Wednesday, July 18, 2007 at 04:56 PM
This article is very beautiful, I really get very beyendım text files manually to your health as you travesti very beautiful and I wish you continued success with all respect ..
Thanks for helpful information travesti siteleri you catch up us with your sagol instructional çok explanation.
en iyi travestiler en guzel travesti
travesti
istanbul travestileri
ankara travestileri
izmir travestileri
travestiler
trv
travesti siteleri
travesti video
travesti video
travesti
travesti
travestiler
travesti
travestiler
sohbet
chat
organik
güncel blog
travesti
jigolo
Posted by: travesti video | Thursday, April 29, 2010 at 09:01 AM
Baychev, public sector employment is around 20% of the labour force in the UK, bot 40%. There is plenty evidence that the ONS have over-estimated the recession. The level of consumer spending, retail spending, PMI surveys etc.
Posted by: sex call | Thursday, July 08, 2010 at 10:18 AM
Blog provide more fun in different environments where we come here to follow us as we look to the user admin travesti - travesti - escort - travesti - travesti
Posted by: travesti | Friday, August 06, 2010 at 09:59 PM
It’s not unusual to develop a dozen meaningful face changes that you’ve never noticed before. Some faces, like Eleanor Roosevelt’s, develop twice that many.
Posted by: phentermine 37.5 | Tuesday, August 31, 2010 at 06:48 PM
ment and say that I really enjoyed reading your blog post here. It was very informative and I also digg the way you write! Keep it up and I’ll be back to read more in the future
Posted by: Conf Host | Monday, September 27, 2010 at 01:24 PM
This is very interesting, You are a very skilled blogger. I have joined your feed and look forward to seeking more of your great post.
Posted by: Singha Tours | Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 12:43 PM
Hello, just discovered your web-site when i google something and wonder what webhosting do you use for your website,the speed is more faster than my website, i really need it.will back to check it out,thank you!
Posted by: Ekal Kumbh | Friday, October 01, 2010 at 09:50 AM
I like the writing structure of your blog and it does a pretty decent job of presenting the information.
Posted by: Wedding 2046 | Monday, October 04, 2010 at 08:00 AM
It appears that you have put considerable hard work in to your post and I would like more of them on the internet right now. I seriously got a kick through your post. I can’t ever have much to convey responding, I simply planned to remark to your excellent work.
Posted by: Art Store House | Tuesday, October 05, 2010 at 06:24 AM
Only another half the post is displaying, weird, is this my browser or the internet site?
Posted by: New York Auto Graphs | Tuesday, October 05, 2010 at 10:59 AM
I recommended it on stumbleupon. The only thing that it’s missing is a bit of new design.
Posted by: Protestant Lawyers NY | Wednesday, October 06, 2010 at 09:13 AM
You designed some excellent points there. I did a research within the theme and determined most persons will agree with your webpage.
Posted by: Computer Shop Survey | Thursday, October 07, 2010 at 08:02 AM
Yo i adore your weblog, discovered it while randomly surving a couple days ago, will keep checking up please do
Posted by: Cnesbau Export | Thursday, October 07, 2010 at 12:13 PM
Been following your blog for 3 days now and i should say i am starting to like your post. and now how do i subscribe to your blog?
Posted by: Heart Exercise | Friday, October 08, 2010 at 11:34 AM
Hello , I just stopped by to visit your weblog and thought I’d say thank you .
Posted by: Online Softwares | Monday, October 11, 2010 at 11:24 AM
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. Praesent vestibulum molestie lacus. Aenean nonummy hendrerit mauris. Phasellus porta. Fusce suscipit varius mi. Cum sociis natoque penatibus et magnis dis parturient montes, nascetur ridiculus mus. Nulla dui. Fusce feugiat malesuada odio. Morbi nunc odio, gravida at
Posted by: india seo company | Tuesday, October 12, 2010 at 06:09 AM
Hi, i’ve been browsing around your blog and it seem really really neat. I’m making a family blog and struggling to make it look great. How hard was it to create your blog? Could someone like me, an amateur do that? I really wanna to make something like this. Just wanna tell u your home page seem broken when I browse using Mozilla
Posted by: Home Improvement Advisor | Tuesday, October 12, 2010 at 09:00 AM
You really make it seem so easy with your presentation but I find this topic to be really something which I think I would never understand. It seems too complicated and very broad for me. I am looking forward for your next post, I will try to get the hang of it!
Posted by: London Tours | Wednesday, October 13, 2010 at 07:04 AM
I would like to start writing articles and post them like you do, but i just can’t decide which platform to use, between blogger and wordpress. Which 1 would u recommend for a newbie like me? By the way good articles you have!
Posted by: Fashion Advisor | Wednesday, October 13, 2010 at 09:46 AM
ALPR strobe light
Gardasoft Vision manufactures LED Lighting Controllers, pulse controllers & strobes for machine vision systems including constant current controls & LED intensity controls.
Posted by: ALPR strobe light | Thursday, October 14, 2010 at 06:51 AM
Chicago Party Bus
Chicago Party bus rental and limo party bus rentals. Cheap Limousine bus rent for prom, wedding, bachelor party,bachelorette party, charter, airport. Chicago illinois Party bus rent services company.
Posted by: gaurav | Thursday, October 14, 2010 at 07:08 AM
i know i’m a little off topic, but i just wanted to say i love the layout of your blog. i’m new to the blogegine platform, so any suggestions on getting my blog looking nice would be appreciated.
Posted by: DC Debt | Thursday, October 14, 2010 at 07:52 AM
i know i’m a little off topic, but i just wanted to say i love the layout of your blog. i’m new to the blogegine platform, so any suggestions on getting my blog looking nice would be appreciated.
Posted by: DC Debt | Thursday, October 14, 2010 at 07:56 AM
Although in line with the literature on the U.S., these results are quite striking, in particular in the light of the more traditional, narrative approach which suggests that the monetary policy regime has been an important factor in explaining the Great Moderation in the United Kingdom.This is a wonderful opinion. The things mentioned are unanimous and needs to be appreciated by everyone.
==============================================
Compare Motorhome Insurance
Posted by: habika | Thursday, October 14, 2010 at 12:27 PM
Being environmentally friendly, having a low carbon footprint and caring for the environment need no longer be confined to how we shop for consumables, what cars we use or how we choose to travel. You can now wave your underwear as a flag of being eco friendly and green and there has recently been an increase in the amount of men's underwear creeping on to the high street and ecommerce shops that are friendly to our environment and observe fair trade ethics.
Posted by: cotton underwear | Friday, October 15, 2010 at 07:17 AM
security grilles
Retractable Security Grilles at Trade Prices, Supplied and Delivered Direct by RSG Security. FREE London Delivery.
Posted by: security grilles | Friday, October 15, 2010 at 07:38 AM
duo horse box
High Quality Motorised Horse Boxes for Sale! Horse in a Box manufactures trendy Duo Weekender and versatile 3.5 ton vehicle range from basic to professional built to order.
Posted by: duo horse box | Friday, October 15, 2010 at 07:50 AM
Extraordinary site, I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing a little homework on that. And he in fact bought me cocktail because I found it for him..
Posted by: Wedding Reviews | Friday, October 15, 2010 at 08:59 AM
Cash flow management on the level of personal finances is really about paying attention to your cash needs. You then need to analyse your income and relate it to current and future expenditure.
Posted by: Company secretarial services | Friday, October 15, 2010 at 09:18 AM
Affordable Office Space
Come to Langstone Technology Park for affordable Managed Office Space, Flexible Office Space, Office Spaces for rent & lease in Havant, Portsmouth, Hampshire & South Coast, UK.
Posted by: Affordable Office Space Hampshire | Friday, October 15, 2010 at 09:31 AM
Find emails instantly and lookup emails with our free email finder and lookup tool. we make finding emails quick and easy.
Posted by: find email address free | Friday, October 15, 2010 at 09:43 AM
Can I give your web site an overall comment? I like the content of your page, really a lot! Mainly because they’re rich and informative. However, I think this web page would undoubtedly look greater if you change to a better theme. Just my 2 cents.
Posted by: Top Cell Phones | Friday, October 15, 2010 at 12:15 PM
ThePicturebiz provides canvas art printing service including acrylic perspex canvas art, banksy canvas Art, floral canvas art, photos on canvas and other canvas prints at affordable price.
Posted by: photo canvas photos on canvas | Friday, October 15, 2010 at 12:20 PM
There are certain things about the concept of rainwater harvesting that can sometimes be taken for granted, especially if you've been familiar with the process for a while. This was certainly the case for me while talking to a neighbour about rainwater tanks.
One thing that I'd noticed over the last few years driving my car around Melbourne, Australia were the amount of houses that have Rainwater Tanks installed (and they're just the one's you can see from the street).
Posted by: Rainwater Harvesting | Friday, October 15, 2010 at 06:50 PM
clear brace
Caring female cosmetic dentist in Birmingham, who is a member of the British Academy of Cosmetic Dentistry. Services provided include tooth whitening, porcelain veneers, crowns, cosmetic dentistry and root canal treatment
Posted by: clear brace | Saturday, October 16, 2010 at 06:29 AM
thanks for the wonderful post , I Appreciate you !
Posted by: Aobo Club | Saturday, October 16, 2010 at 09:39 AM
Awesome ! Thanks for sharing with us..
Posted by: David J Marchant | Monday, October 18, 2010 at 07:54 AM
Wall stickers for any room. Decorative wall sticker vinyls available in out online store. Order you wall decals today.
Posted by: Banksy wall stickers | Monday, October 18, 2010 at 08:25 AM