OECD Economic Outlook: "not that bad in view of the recent shocks"

The OECD released its latest Economic Outlook today. Though some fear that falling house prices and the global credit crunch might drive the US into a recession, that view is not shared in Paris. Their US forecast expects weakness in the US housing sector to drag down growth in the near term but it "is unlikely to trigger a recession". GDP growth is forecast to 2.0% in 2008. Private consumption will be weak - but public and non-residential investment should remain quite perky, and the cheap US dollar will see net exports add to growth next year just as it they have this year. Here's their summmary of the US outlook:

Healthy gains in private consumption have helped to keep GDP growth above trend thus far this year. However, the correction in residential construction is likely to accelerate over the near term, and housing wealth could decline which, together with weaker labour market conditions, could lead to lower consumption growth over time. GDP should therefore slow to a pace below potential in 2008 and then recover in 2009, although there are considerable downside risks.

This assessment is broadly in line with recent Federal Reserve and private sector forecasts. An outside risk of recession, to be sure - but not considered that likely. (For another recent official US economic overview, see yesterday's Congressional testimony by CBO Director Peter R. Orszag).

But what about the overall economic outlook? You can watch a webcast of the news conference by OECD's acting Chief Economist Jorgen Elmeskov here. Or just read his 18 page handout (PDF), which contained this precis:

Several shocks have hit OECD economies recently: financial turmoil, cooling housing markets, and higher prices of energy and other commodities. Fortunately, they have occurred at a time when growth was being supported by high employment that boosts income and consumption; by high profits and strong balance sheets that underpin investment and resilience in the face of financial losses and tighter credit; and by still buoyant world trade driven by robust growth in emerging economies. Hence, although near-term growth has been revised down virtually everywhere in the OECD area, the baseline scenario depicted in this Economic Outlook is actually not that bad in view of the recent shocks.

Of course, as the accompanying chartset makes very clear, there are still plenty of reasons to be concerned. Energy and commodity prices have surged, headline inflation has picked up, credit conditions are tight, house prices are decelerating, consumer confidence is softening, and job creation is slowing. Against that, fiscal positions have improved and world trade is buoyant.

It's not the end of the world, but it's not exactly time to crack open the champers either. Or as Elmeskov put it at the news conference: “It’s not a recession but obviously it’s not going to feel all that great either.”

Comments

[Lafayette]

Article: "although near-term growth has been revised down virtually everywhere in the OECD area, the baseline scenario depicted in this Economic Outlook is actually not that bad in view of the recent shocks"

Right ... if you've got a job. If you're waiting for one ... well, the wait gets longer.

The EU area is forecast to have a total growth rate of 1.9% p.ann. for 2008. Developed economies need 2.5% to trigger job creation, so the EU is way, way, way below that target rate.

The EU is trying to shake the gloom that has beset its economic growth since, say, the early 1990s. It has proven to be incompetent at managing a common growth policy. Economic growth in the EU is historically a patchwork from the very good (the UK, some parts of Scandinavia) to very bad (namely France and Germany, the EU's principle economic motor economies).

It is good that statistical reporting should, finally, be amalgamating the EU so that it can be compared with its sister-economy, the US. But the comparison derived is not flattering to the EU. It is still rife with backward work regulations that are prompting businesses to dislocate eastward or contract to the Far East. Internal economies are, still, relatively moribund -- despite the boom in real estate investments throughout the EU, which has been able to sustain internal demand but not grow it. And, R&D investments are not at a level necessary to stimulate demand with product innovations. (When, ô when, will the EU come up with an iPod or an iPhone!?!)

'Tis a shame. The EU needs to take a long, hard look at what is constraining its growth and then make a coordinated effort to address those constraints. They are multiple and across the board.

There is still hope that the EU's manifest destiny of economic superpower status is just around the corner. But it has been, once again, pushed beyond the horizon by a year or two. True, this may be the fault of externalities, like the sub-prime mess in the US (thank you, thank you, Uncle Sam, this is only the second time in ten years that you export your "free market" speculative frenzies to the rest of the world! When ya gonna learn?) Or oil prices.

But, pointing fingers at "externalities" is not going to help the EU rectify its own "internalities" that continue to inhibit its growth rate.

[buy viagra]

Excellent blog about OECD Economic Outlook!! I love all the articles you have, you have done an excellent job with the information on them.!!!

[submitlink]

you have done an excellent job with the information on them.!!!

Funny Sms

[travesti video]

This article is very sohbet beautiful, I really get very beyendım text files manually to your health as you Travesti very beautiful and I wish you continued success with all respect ..

Thanks for helpful information Travesti siteleri you catch up us with your sagol instructional çok explanation.
en iyi travestiler en guzel Travesti

[ebru34]

This article is very beautiful, I really get very beyendım text files manually to your health as you travesti very beautiful and I wish you continued success with all respect .. travesti

[travesti]

This article is very beautiful, I really get very beyendım text files manually to your health as you Travesti..

[nfl jerseys]

I can't believe how much of this I just wasn't aware of. Thank you for bringing more information to this topic for me. I'm truly grateful and really impressed.

[air jordans]

Thank you for sharing your stuff on blog. It is doubtless that we have similar interests. Something are very helpful to me.

[Buy Adderall]

TO BE SUCCESSFUL AT THEIR job, internal auditors must be able to write, speak, and listen effectively.

[buy codeine]

Additionally, listening is difficult because people don't work as hard at it as they should.

[Buy Adderall]

Internal auditors must listen to explanations, rationales, and defenses of financial practices and procedures

[Buy Adderall]

About one third of total Danish employment is in the public sector

[Buy hydrocodone]

Langenbrunner had assisted on their third goal before Sutter rebuked him for laziness in the defensive end

[Buy hydrocodone]

But, I’ve never once held something personal against a player from a confrontation

[GHD]

successHerve Leger dressesexpect
Herve Leger clothingearly

make sureHerve Leger clothing
desired piecesDiscount herve leger in minutes
eleganceChristian Louboutin SandalsThe creative vision
let me downChristian Louboutin Sandals Sale

leatherPrada SunglassesTalented artist
Oakley Sunglassesluxury
appealArmani Sunglassesthe most exciting

a href="http://www.designersunglasses-glasses.com/bvlgari-sunglasses-c-46.html">Bvlgari suglasses salethe detail
reallyBvlgari suglassesSpain
Cheap Bvlgari suglasses on slae

Martini Sunglassesed hardy kid tshirtsthe players
Ed Hardy Men Beach Pants
ed hardy hoodiesdisplay

a href="http://www.cheap-ed-hardy-clothing.com/ed-hardy-sunglasses-c-14.html">Cheap ed hardy sunglassesOne day
hardy clothingCheap ed hardy WomenApparently

ShopCheap Herve Leger Dressesthis summer
Discount Herve Leger Dressesmany times
my listHerve Leger Skirtall time

this reasonCheap Herve Leger Dress 2010well-known design
classifiedCheap Herve Leger Saleforever

a fewWomen Christian Audigier BagsApple floods

annually Women Christian Audigier Underwear
Women Christian Audigier Walletslogical

a piece of Christian Audigier Women Purses Discountthe pie
Christian Audigier Women Caps Discountfashion
Christian Audigier Women Hoodies Discountdaily

humanMBT Sandalswhy
questions MBT Sports Shoespanda
spend all day MBT Casual On Saleshopping

First offMBT SapatuGreen
United StatesWomen MBT Sapatu Sandalsconsumers
MBT Sapatu Men Sandals On Saleindustry

responsiblelouboutin pumps saleplanet
the environmentlouboutin shoes salebut also
pictureslouboutin boots saleshare

charmsMen Louboutin Shoesactivelytwo eras mightChristian Louboutin men sneakersextremelyin commonChristian loubout shoes discount salecollection

talking aboutDiscount Ghd Straightenerspecifically
Ghd Hair Straighteners Cheaplook like springGhd Hair Straighteners Cheapsport hardingBlue Serenity GHD IV Stylerstudentthe richDark GHD IV StylerteacherGHD Benefit StylershootsadnessHerve Leger Dress Discountdiscovery themeDiscount Herve Leger Dressstyler

fashionableDiscount Herve leger Bandage Dressincredible

sponserHerve Leger Clothing Cheapsurvival
encourageHerve Leger Clothing On Salelight
tell me truthDiscount Herve Leger Skirtdarling
a href="http://www.ugg-uk-australia.com/">ugg ukmistake
kateugg australiasomewhere
lineugg boots on salecan
theyuggs boots ukkinds
all bestuggs australiatheme

memoryugg 5359throw up
give meugg 1873its up to you
skyugg 5885closely

[Maria]

Çilek sex shop Mağzamızda En Kaliteli sex ürünleri, sex oyuncakları şişme bebek ve erotic shop erotik giyim Ürünlerini Bulabileceğiniz Gibi Ayrıca, penis büyütücü, geciktirici, Bayan Uyarıcı, Ürünlerde Temin Edebilirsiniz. 1994 ten Bu Yana En Kaliteli Orjinal Erotik Ürünlerini Sağlamakta Olan Çilek Erotik Shop ta Tüm Cinsel Ürünleri Bulabilirsiniz

[horkes]

Remove it from the loud sound described as among the People of the individual during sleep, especially in the medical sense, the most common cause of snoring soft palate observed in adults, little more than normal growth of the tongue, the muscles sag and lose tension and blockage of the airway during sleep titresmesidir little of the language.

[saç çikarici]

Internet users in more than 2 billion people worldwide, 778 million the number of computers registered to the internet, the web of 313 million, a total of 205 million units in the name of that reported.

To the extent that there is hundreds of millions of blogs and video Ahmed, said that Turkey has been estimated that there's at around 30 million.

Ahmed, the computer recorded the number of Internet in Turkey has been reported around 4 million, 250 thousand under .. en told that the domain name.

[diş beyazlatma kalemi]

Save the essence of life in the treatment of skin allantoinle Snail! This essence creates a bad appearance and have no choice tahribatlarının skin no longer be removed even if the so-called cracks.

Nature of this herbal solution effectively and safely as possible to get rid of sivilcelerinizden! Skin care products on behalf of the choice deliberately choose to adhere and creams containing natural formulas that you keep the fault

[extra jel]

As millions of people who want to lose weight, but youDid he can not succeed in a kind of worry about your weight yanıyorsunuz more? You might think, and this process will be much easier to lose weight in a healthy way to get over ... Now a much more difficult as it used to have a nice view, but you have to do is that you want to attenuation.

[mitsubishi klima servisi]

Thanks for the info. Very useful topic